What is solar nowcasting?

Solar energy is becoming the standard

The amount of solar energy has explosively increased worldwide in the past 10 years. Concretely, since 2016, the amount of installed solar capacity in the Netherlands has increased more than tenfold. Currently, almost half of the installed capacity consists of solar energy (according to the Transparency Platform of ENTSO-E). Which is, of course, a great statistic for a sustainable future.

The challenge of cloud cover

However, solar energy is inherently linked to one uncertainty: cloud cover. Clouds are constantly moving. And not only do they constantly move, but they also change shape and density rapidly. Clouds appear out of nowhere and then dissipate to be never seen again. This causes solar panels to generate energy one moment, and stop producing the next. If a solar park owner or asset manager does not anticipate this rapid change, imbalance on the energy grid is the only logical consequence.

Energy imbalance: a costly problem

Imbalance on the energy grid is undesirable, as it causes problems on our energy infrastructure. Imbalance not only damages our grid, but also increases the risk to damage devices connected to the grid. With too much imbalance, devices can even break. That is the reason why creating imbalance carries a fine. An interview with solarmagazine.nl reveals that a solar park currently loses about 25 percent of its revenue due to imbalance. Which is, of course, a great shame. Costs due to imbalance jeopardize the profitability of solar parks, which can ultimately slow down the energy transition. And solarnowcasting.com is trying to prevent that.

The solution: solar nowcasting

Within solarnowcasting.com, we have developed a meteorological model that can accurately predict the amount of solar radiation in the short term. Our model, SNCAST-26, works for every country in Europe and can make a forecast for the next 3 hours in just a few seconds. The model has been rigorously tested against various benchmarks, and the results show that the model outperforms traditional weather models in terms of accuracy, speed, and sharpness. With the predictive power our model delivers, we can counteract imbalances and accelerate the energy transition (or as some experts might say the energy addition).

How does our solution work?

Our solar nowcasting system uses satellite imagery to track cloud cover in real time. Unlike traditional weather models that look days ahead, nowcasting focuses on the direct movement of clouds and radiation on a minute basis. With our proprietary quantitative methods, we analyze cloud patterns and predict future cloud movement, calculating power production in the near future.